All Sources✓
YouTube✓
Twitter✓
Reddit✓
Substack✓
Insider✓
News✓
Loading...
0 selected
All directions✓
▲ Long✓
▼ Short✓
◦ Others✓
Any score✓
LOW+✓
MED+✓
HIGH✓
17:30
Apr 15
Apr 15
USDT
BTC
ETH
V
▾
Stablecoins need non-crypto usage to grow.
Stablecoins are currently used predominantly for crypto-related activities, but for broader adoption and to prove their utility, they need to see a significant increase in usage for non-crypto purposes such as traditional corporate payments and settlements.
USDT WATCH
Bitcoin governance risks hinder upgrades.
Bitcoin's governance structure poses a risk to its ability to upgrade efficiently, particularly for existential threats like quantum computing, which could hinder its long-term viability.
BTC AVOID
Ethereum benefits from Canton interoperability.
Ethereum's large and established ecosystem makes it a valuable partner for interoperability with Canton Network, allowing asset movement between chains and increasing utility for both platforms.
ETH LONG
Visa's Canton involvement boosts payments.
Visa's role as a super validator on Canton Network, leveraging privacy features for on-chain payments, positions it to capitalize on the future of digital payments and could drive growth.
V LONG
20:32
Apr 13
Apr 13
ETH
ARB
▾
Ethereum's openness and security ensure long-term success.
Ethereum's programmability, layered open design, enormous economically secured decentralized consensus, and network effects from being credibly neutral and open give it a long-term advantage and make it a safer, more future-proof choice for institutions and users, analogous to the internet's success.
ETH LONG
Arbitrum L2 advantages drive institutional adoption and growth.
Arbitrum's L2 technology offers inherent advantages over L1s including much lower cost, faster block times, minimal reorg risk (only once in five years), and customizability, which are key to attracting institutional adoption and scaling the Ethereum stack, with a pipeline of future institutional adoption ongoing.
ARB LONG
12:35
Apr 13
Apr 13
BTC
GLD
SLV
Tokenized stocks
Real asset tokenization
▾
Long-term crypto fundamentals remain very strong.
The fundamentals of crypto are extremely strong, with use cases like stablecoins, real asset tokenization, and crypto payments gaining traction. Institutional and nation-state adoption is growing, with nearly 18% of Bitcoin held by ETFs, nations, and firms, indicating a long-term accumulation phase despite short-term price consolidation.
BTC WATCH
Tokenized precious metals are gaining rapid adoption.
Binance is expanding into a multi-asset class platform offering tokenized precious metals like gold and silver. Trading volumes for these products have grown rapidly, reaching 10-20% of traditional exchange volumes within months, indicating strong user demand for 24/7 access to commodity markets.
GLD LONG
SLV LONG
Traditional assets moving on-chain is a major trend.
The future of finance involves traditional exchanges and institutions moving their assets and securities on-chain to enable 24/7 trading and efficient clearing/settlement. This tokenization of real-world assets (RWA) is a major growth area for the industry and for platforms that can aggregate this liquidity.
Tokenized stocks LONG
Real asset tokenization LONG
Stablecoins are a superior cross-border payment rail.
Stablecoins are a massive and growing use case due to their efficiency and cost advantages over traditional cross-border payment systems like SWIFT. Major corporations and treasury operations are adopting them to move capital instantly, cheaply, and over weekends, improving capital efficiency.
USDT LONG
Binance is integrating AI across all operations.
Binance is aggressively integrating AI across its operations, from customer service and trading tools (Binance AI Pro) to compliance, KYC, fraud detection, and transaction monitoring. This internal mandate aims to make the organization vastly more efficient and effective, especially at scale.
BNB WATCH
19:21
Apr 10
Apr 10
XLY
▾
Austin Griffith argued that "there's never been a worse time in history to be a junior developer," and that the value of large development teams is diminishing in favor of solo builders using AI. If AI tools allow a single builder to achieve what previously required a team, the demand for traditional, entry-level software development roles in large corporate structures will decline. The hiring dynamic shifts towards elite "scalers" and away from generalist junior programmers. AVOID traditional, broad-based "software developer" roles or services tied to that labor model. The skill set and team structures that were previously valuable are being disrupted by AI amplification. Sam Green presented a counter-argument, citing data that developer hiring has increased. If software complexity outpaces AI's ability to manage it, demand for developers could remain robust or grow.
XLY AVOID
18:27
Apr 07
Apr 07
BTC
ETH
TAO
▾
The speaker stated Bitcoin has "unique challenges" due to a greater share of lost/old coins (e.g., Satoshi's) and a slower, more contentious upgrade process, having had only two major soft forks in its history. The quantum threat necessitates a community fork to implement post-quantum cryptography. The debate over how to handle immovable old coins could be more divisive than the technical upgrade itself, leading to market uncertainty about which fork retains value. This creates a significant, high-stakes monitoring event. The outcome of the fork and community consensus will critically impact Bitcoin's value and structure, requiring close watch. The Bitcoin community galvanizes and executes a smooth, consensus-driven upgrade ahead of the quantum threat timeline, mitigating the fork risk.
BTC WATCH
The speaker said Ethereum is "probably better placed" to tackle the quantum challenge due to its active developer community, a record of shipping difficult changes (e.g., proof-of-work to proof-of-stake), and upgrading about twice a year. This proven adaptability and execution capability position Ethereum to more reliably navigate the complex engineering and community coordination required for a post-quantum upgrade compared to chains with slower development cycles. Ethereum's relative preparedness is a key differentiator and reduces execution risk, making its upgrade path a critical factor to monitor versus other smart contract platforms. Development complexity or community disagreement stalls Ethereum's upgrade timeline, eroding its perceived advantage.
ETH WATCH
The speaker called Bit Tensor "an important investment thesis" and a vital decentralized alternative to centralized AI control, highlighting a recent breakthrough where a subnet pre-trained a 72B parameter LLM using distributed compute. The core ethos is that AI is too critical to be controlled by few centralized entities. Bit Tensor's platform enables decentralized development, and demonstrated on-the-ground breakthroughs validate its technical feasibility and attract attention. The project addresses a major, secular need (decentralized AI), is showing signs of technical success, and is accruing value through its ecosystem growth, warranting a positive outlook. The platform fails to keep pace with the rapid innovation of centralized AI entities, or the utility of its decentralized models does not achieve broad adoption.
TAO LONG
15:50
Apr 03
Apr 03
AAVE
▾
The speaker states Aave secures up to $70B in value, made $140M in protocol revenue last year, is on track for similar revenue this year, and commands ~82% of Ethereum lending. V4's new hub-and-spoke architecture and risk premiums improve efficiency, isolate risk, and open new revenue streams from expanded collateral (e.g., RWAs). The technological upgrades in V4 directly enhance the protocol's scalability, risk management, and addressable market (via RWAs). Concurrently, the simplified Aave app tackles the major UX barrier to mainstream adoption. Strong revenue generation funds continued development. The combination of technical superiority, a clear path to user growth, proven revenue generation, and a dominant market position creates a strong foundation for Aave to capture the anticipated multi-trillion dollar growth of DeFi and on-chain finance. Slow, organic migration from the successful V3 to V4 could delay benefits. Regulatory uncertainty, particularly around stablecoin on/off-ramps and DeFi clarity, could hinder mainstream and institutional adoption.
AAVE LONG
19:18
Apr 02
Apr 02
AVAX
▾
The CEO stated that Avalanche's deterministic settlement and instant finality were critical for obtaining a European trading and settlement system license, as regulators required these features for on-chain security transactions. This regulatory validation underscores Avalanche's technical suitability for high-stakes, regulated tokenized asset markets, which are growing rapidly. WATCH because its technology is being leveraged for production-grade, regulated tokenization projects, indicating potential for increased utility and adoption. Emergence of competing blockchains with similar or superior regulatory-approved features.
AVAX WATCH
16:17
Mar 18
Mar 18
AVUSD
▾
Speaker built Avant to provide a fully on-chain, transparent, yield-bearing "dollar-like" product (AVUSD) that automates complex DeFi yield strategies, solving the user pain point of constant monitoring and manual management. Incumbent stablecoins (e.g., Tether) capture all treasury yield. New entrants need a value proposition, and passing through yield is key. Avant offers a "mint and stake and chill" experience by professionally managing on-chain yield strategies with full transparency. WATCH because it addresses a clear user need for simplified yield access and transparency post-blowups (e.g., Seneca). Its success depends on sustaining attractive risk-adjusted yields and scaling TVL in a competitive market. Smart contract risk inherent in the underlying DeFi strategies, and competitive pressure from other yield-bearing stablecoin providers and native DeFi yield aggregators.
AVUSD WATCH
17:56
Mar 17
Mar 17
BTC
LTC
▾
Charlie Lee stated that Bitcoin's goal is to overtake gold's market cap (approximately $34 trillion) within a decade. Bitcoin serves as decentralized money with a fixed supply, making it superior to gold as a reserve currency, and institutional adoption is increasing. Long-term bullish on Bitcoin due to significant growth potential to match or exceed gold's market capitalization. Failure to achieve widespread adoption, regulatory crackdowns, or technological issues could hinder growth.
BTC LONG
Charlie Lee emphasized Litecoin's reliability for fast, cheap payments over 14+ years, with ongoing developments like MWEB privacy and LitM smart contracts. Litecoin's focused utility and continuous improvements make it durable against competitors, and new features enhance its value without altering its core purpose. Positive long-term outlook based on fundamental strengths and adaptability in the crypto ecosystem. Slow adoption of optional privacy features, increased competition, or loss of community interest could impact growth.
LTC LONG
13:10
Mar 17
Mar 17
TON
FOUR
XLF
USDT
▾
The speaker states TON has a "unique position" with Telegram's billion users and is launching an SDK (TON Pay) to simplify merchant crypto payments, aiming for "millions of users and... billions of volume" in crypto commerce. By reducing integration friction and improving UX (targeting "Apple Pay level UX"), TON is positioned to capture a significant share of crypto payment activity flowing through the massive, pre-existing Telegram network. LONG due to a clear, large-scale distribution advantage and a focused product strategy to unlock payment utility for a massive existing user base. Failure to attract meaningful merchant adoption or to simplify the user journey sufficiently for mainstream Telegram users.
TON LONG
The speaker confirms a partnership with Shift4 for "merchant settlement on... the TON infrastructure" and mentions upcoming "interesting things" regarding direct acceptance at terminals. Shift4's integration with TON provides a bridge for traditional merchant payment flows to settle via crypto rails, potentially opening a new, scalable channel for crypto payment processing if successful. WATCH because this partnership represents a concrete step towards institutional merchant adoption of crypto payments, but its scale and impact are still developing. Slow rollout or limited merchant uptake of the TON settlement option through Shift4's platform.
FOUR WATCH
The speaker states blockchain-based stablecoin/money movement solutions will only replace 5-20% of B2B transactions, citing efficient existing rails (e.g., intra-EU euro payments) that "don't need a replacement." The vast majority of traditional payment flows, especially in efficient, regulated corridors, are not competitively threatened by blockchain alternatives in the near to medium term. AVOID investing in the narrative of blockchain payments fully disrupting traditional finance rails broadly; the disruption is targeted and niche. A breakthrough in regulatory unification or cost efficiency that makes blockchain rails universally superior faster than anticipated.
XLF AVOID
The speaker cites Tether adding 30-40 million users per quarter, attributing much of it to store of value and remittance use, and identifies remittances as a "second area of huge... growth potential" for TON. USDT is the primary stablecoin for cross-border value transfer in emerging markets. TON's strategy to grow in remittances directly benefits USDT as the dominant asset in that use case. LONG as TON's expansion into payments and remittances is likely to drive increased demand and utility for the most widely used stablecoin in those corridors. Regulatory crackdown on USDT or the rise of a competing stablecoin better integrated with TON/Telegram.
USDT LONG
17:17
Mar 16
Mar 16
BTC
LTC
BTDR
▾
1. FACT: Charlie Lee states that Bitcoin's ultimate goal is to overtake gold as the premier reserve currency, projecting it will surpass gold's $34 trillion market cap within a decade. 2. BRIDGE: As sovereign nations and massive institutions continue to adopt Bitcoin as a treasury reserve asset, its fixed supply (21 million) will force aggressive upward price discovery to absorb the incoming capital, mirroring gold's historical role but with superior portability and verifiable scarcity. 3. VERDICT: LONG. The structural adoption of Bitcoin by institutions and potentially governments provides a massive long-term tailwind that dwarfs current market capitalizations. 4. KEY RISK: Coordinated global regulatory crackdowns on decentralized assets or a failure of sovereign entities to adopt Bitcoin as a reserve treasury asset.
BTC LONG
1. FACT: Litecoin has operated with zero downtime for over 14 years, focusing strictly on fast, cheap payments. It is now adding smart contract capabilities via LitVM and optional privacy via the MWEB (Mimblewimble) upgrade. 2. BRIDGE: While the market currently favors high-throughput, venture-backed Layer 1 blockchains, Litecoin's Lindy effect (proven reliability) and new utility (smart contracts + privacy) make it a highly resilient network. Expanding institutional access via ETFs and trusts provides a pipeline for traditional capital to allocate to LTC. 3. VERDICT: WATCH. The fundamentals and network upgrades are strong, but Lee's own admission that we may be at the peak of the current crypto cycle suggests waiting for a better macro entry point. 4. KEY RISK: The "boring" narrative fails to attract retail speculation, and newer Layer 1s or Layer 2 scaling solutions (like Lightning Network) cannibalize Litecoin's payment market share.
LTC WATCH
1. FACT: Lee notes that crypto mining manufacturers and infrastructure firms are realizing their expertise translates perfectly to AI. The hosts and Lee explicitly highlight Jihan Wu's firm pivoting heavily from crypto mining into AI infrastructure. 2. BRIDGE: Jihan Wu is the founder of Bitdeer Technologies (BTDR), a major US-listed crypto mining firm. The structural pivot of Bitcoin miners toward high-performance computing (HPC) and AI hosting allows these companies to diversify revenue streams, secure long-term AI contracts, and re-rate their valuations from cyclical crypto miners to secular AI infrastructure plays. 3. VERDICT: WATCH. Miners successfully executing the AI pivot offer a unique, high-upside equity play, but the capital expenditure required is massive. 4. KEY RISK: Inability to secure the necessary capital to upgrade facilities for AI compute, or intense competition from legacy data center operators.
BTDR WATCH
18:46
Mar 13
Mar 13
BRPHF
SOL
AVAX
BLK
HOOD
▾
We look at Galaxy and Superstate and this partnership as kind of the very early stages of what we think the market will become in the long term. Galaxy Digital is acting as the primary bridge between traditional finance and crypto, successfully tokenizing its own equity and issuing on-chain CLOs. This first-mover advantage will attract significant B2B advisory, infrastructure, and asset management business from legacy banks looking to upgrade their tech stacks. LONG. Galaxy Digital is uniquely positioned to monetize the TradFi transition to blockchain rails through its proprietary infrastructure, regulatory compliance, and advisory services. The transition of traditional finance to on-chain rails is expected to take 5 to 10 years, meaning revenue realization and widespread adoption may be much slower than market expectations.
BRPHF LONG
We were really excited about that CLO... it was through one of our portfolio companies, Arch. And they were Bitcoin, Ethereum, Solano, and XRP-backed loans. Layer 1 blockchains that successfully integrate with SEC-registered transfer agents and institutional issuers to host Real World Assets (RWAs) and structured products (like CLOs) will capture massive TVL from the traditional finance market, driving network fees and token utility. LONG. Solana and Avalanche are establishing themselves as the primary base layers for institutional tokenization, moving beyond retail speculation into multi-million dollar traditional debt and equity markets. Regulatory crackdowns on public blockchains hosting securities, or TradFi institutions opting to build private, permissioned subnets instead of using public mainnets.
SOL LONG
AVAX LONG
Black Rockck say that they're going to tokenize everything which means all their ETFs and like at that point it doesn't really much matter what the underlying structure is there is a liquid secondary market to tap into. Asset managers that tokenize their highly liquid funds will be the first to capture the $300 billion in dormant stablecoin capital seeking yield. This creates a massive, entirely new distribution channel for their traditional financial products. LONG. BlackRock's aggressive first-mover push into tokenization positions them to dominate the on-chain asset management space, driving net new AUM from crypto-native treasuries, hedge funds, and global users. Slow institutional adoption of on-chain rails, or SEC pushback regarding the distribution and trading of tokenized ETFs on decentralized exchanges.
BLK LONG
In tokenization world, you don't need to have either of those things [Robinhood or SoFi accounts]. You can have a backpack account which allows you to get access to the actual IPO the day of. If tokenized equities and on-chain IPOs gain traction, the traditional retail brokerage model will face severe disintermediation. Global users will bypass US-centric brokerages to access primary markets directly via crypto wallets and on-chain exchanges. WATCH. Traditional retail brokerages face a long-term existential threat from permissionless, globally accessible on-chain capital markets that offer instant settlement and direct cap-table ownership. Strict KYC/AML regulations and SEC enforcement may force on-chain IPOs to rely on the exact same traditional brokerages for compliance, neutralizing the disruption threat.
HOOD WATCH
SOFI WATCH
13:34
Mar 11
Mar 11
BLK
AAVE
ONDO
AVAX
BRPHF
▾
"Black Rock is so adamant about getting everything on chain because they don't want to miss out on being able to sell their products into the channel that is the highest growth opportunity for them for the next couple decades." Asset managers that aggressively integrate with stablecoin issuers and on-chain treasuries will capture the massive influx of dollars moving into the crypto ecosystem, securing their AUM dominance. LONG. BlackRock's proactive approach to tokenizing its funds ensures it will be the default yield provider for the rapidly growing stablecoin and DeFi treasury management market. Slower-than-expected institutional adoption of on-chain funds or intense competition from crypto-native asset managers.
BLK LONG
"Aave has a specific market focused on RWAs... there's about today 400 million in TVL. Superstate... uses about half of that AUM 150 million as collateral inside of Aave today for people to borrow stable coins." DeFi lending protocols that successfully adapt their smart contracts to accept permissioned, tokenized traditional assets (like T-bills) will unlock a massive new source of collateral, driving TVL growth independent of crypto price volatility. LONG. Aave is already demonstrating product-market fit with institutional RWAs, allowing it to capture yield-seeking capital that traditional brokerages cannot service as efficiently. Smart contract vulnerabilities or regulatory crackdowns on DeFi front-ends interacting with permissioned securities.
AAVE LONG
"In the permissionless rapper models, definitely a lot more there... If you've seen like, you know, the XOXOs and the Ondo models, there's been a ton of volume around those." Protocols providing indirect exposure to traditional securities via tokenized wrappers offer permissionless distribution, which has immediate product-market fit among crypto-native investors and international users lacking access to US brokerages. LONG. Wrapper models bypass the friction of direct transfer agent integration, allowing for rapid scaling and high trading volumes in the short-to-medium term. Regulatory intervention classifying these wrappers as unregistered securities or derivatives.
ONDO LONG
"We were really excited about about that CLO... it demonstrated, you know, what is possible for a market like this, what you can do with a pool of underlying loans when they're on chain." Blockchains that can successfully host complex, institutional-grade structured products like CLOs will attract significant debt issuance and enterprise activity, driving network utility and fee generation. LONG. Avalanche's ability to support transparent, on-chain debt syndication proves its viability for traditional financial institutions looking to upgrade their backend infrastructure. Institutions may prefer private subnets or competing Layer 1s (like Solana or Ethereum) for future structured product issuances.
AVAX LONG
"With Galaxy... we enable that to be held as a token on Salana for investors that want to do it in their Phantom wallet... It's the same Qstip, same ownership rights." By pioneering native equity tokenization and acting as a first-mover in on-chain capital markets, Galaxy Digital is positioning itself as the premier bridge between traditional finance and crypto, which will drive institutional adoption of its services. LONG. Galaxy's willingness to eat its own cooking by tokenizing its stock and issuing on-chain CLOs gives it a massive competitive advantage in the institutional crypto space. Regulatory pushback on native equity tokenization or lack of secondary market liquidity for permissioned tokens.
BRPHF LONG
18:52
Mar 10
Mar 10
XRP
BLK
BEN
SOL
BTC
▾
XRP has a privileged state on the XRP ledger in the sense that it's the native asset... all transaction fees, reserve requirements on the XRP ledger are denominated on the XRP. As massive traditional finance players like Aviva Investors tokenize funds on the XRPL, and new native lending protocols launch, the network's baseline activity will surge. Because XRP is required for all transaction fees, reserves, and acts as the auto-bridge for illiquid asset swaps, institutional adoption directly forces structural demand and locks up circulating supply of the token. LONG. The transition of XRPL from a pure cross-border payment network to a hub for institutional DeFi, tokenized RWAs, and AI-agent transactions provides a massive fundamental catalyst for the native token. Regulatory pushback on institutional DeFi, delays in the rollout of the native lending protocol, or competing Layer-1s capturing the RWA market share.
XRP LONG
BlackRock basically saying hey everything will be tokenized, launching a tier one tokenized treasury on chain... and a previous one we announced with DBS, Franklin Templeton which is also on the same notion. Legacy financial infrastructure requires T+2 settlement and traps trillions in pre-funding buffers. Asset managers that aggressively adopt blockchain tokenization (like BlackRock and Franklin Templeton) will drastically reduce their operational friction, lower transaction costs by up to 50%, and offer superior, instant-yield products to clients, allowing them to steal market share from slower, legacy-bound competitors. LONG. First-movers in the tokenized real-world asset (RWA) space will capture the multi-trillion dollar migration of traditional capital on-chain, expanding their AUM and improving operating margins. Slow institutional adoption of on-chain products, smart contract vulnerabilities in tokenized funds, or strict SEC regulations limiting the distribution of tokenized securities.
BLK LONG
BEN LONG
Solana over the weekend hit all-time highs for RWA holder counts was around like 146,000. While Ethereum has historically dominated Total Value Locked (TVL) for real-world assets, Solana's surging holder count indicates rapid retail and institutional adoption. Its high-throughput, low-cost architecture is proving highly effective for tokenized assets, positioning it as a primary beneficiary of the broader RWA supercycle alongside XRPL. LONG. Record-breaking user adoption in the RWA sector proves Solana is successfully diversifying its ecosystem beyond meme coins and capturing sticky, high-value financial activity. Network outages, fragmentation of liquidity across competing high-speed Layer-1s, or a broader crypto market drawdown.
SOL LONG
The world is waking more up to the fact that these assets will play an important role with things like BTC being integrated into national stockpile reserve as President Trump announced. Bitcoin has definitively won the "digital gold" narrative. As sovereign nations begin integrating it into their strategic reserves, it triggers a game-theoretic race among other countries and massive institutions to accumulate the asset, permanently reducing available float and driving up the fiat-denominated price. LONG. Sovereign adoption shifts Bitcoin from a speculative tech asset to a mandatory global reserve asset, providing a massive, price-insensitive bid under the market. Geopolitical shifts causing governments to abandon crypto reserve plans, or extreme macroeconomic tightening forcing liquidations of risk assets.
BTC LONG
13:06
Mar 09
Mar 09
XRP
AVVIY
BLK
BEN
ETH
▾
"XRP has a privileged state on the XRP ledger... all transaction fees, reserve requirements are denominated on the XRP... I see really XRP as sort of like the glue on the network that connects liquidity and settlement." As massive traditional institutions like Aviva tokenize billions in funds on the XRPL and a native lending protocol launches, the mechanical demand for XRP (used for gas, network reserves, and auto-bridging illiquid assets) will scale directly with institutional network usage. LONG. Institutional adoption of the XRPL for RWAs and repo markets directly translates to token utility and structural demand for XRP. Regulatory hurdles, competition from other Layer-1 blockchains capturing the RWA market share, or institutions preferring private subnets that do not require the public token.
XRP LONG
"BlackRock basically saying hey everything will be tokenized... Aviva partnership... Franklin Templeton... unlocking these efficiencies that blockchain technology promises... moving from a T+2 kind of situation into an intraday situation." Traditional asset managers that pioneer on-chain tokenization and participate in blockchain-based repo markets will drastically reduce operational friction (which currently accounts for 50% of transaction costs). Freeing up trapped pre-funding liquidity will lead to margin expansion and attract more AUM. LONG. Early adopters of institutional DeFi and tokenized funds will gain a structural cost and capital efficiency advantage over their legacy peers. Slow regulatory approval for on-chain fund distribution, smart contract vulnerabilities, or a lack of secondary market liquidity for tokenized institutional funds.
AVVIY LONG
BLK LONG
BEN LONG
"Ethereum's still leading in RWA TVL. Solana over the weekend hit all-time highs for RWA holder counts was around like 146,000." While enterprise-focused chains are making institutional pushes, Ethereum and Solana are actively capturing the live, crypto-native RWA market. Base layer blockchains that win the RWA liquidity fragmentation battle will accrue massive fee revenue and network effects. LONG. The tokenization of real-world assets is a multi-trillion dollar total addressable market, and the leading Layer-1s capturing this Total Value Locked will see direct value accrual. Network congestion, fragmentation of liquidity across Layer-2s, or traditional finance migrating entirely to permissioned, bank-backed chains.
ETH LONG
SOL LONG
"For me it's really this notion of digital gold... it's very scarce... I think the store of value notion makes sense... integrating into national stockpile reserve." Unlike smart contract platforms that must compete on speed and utility for RWA plumbing, Bitcoin has solidified its distinct product-market fit as a pristine reserve asset and macro hedge, attracting sticky sovereign and state-level capital. LONG. Sovereign adoption and its entrenched status as digital gold provide a unique, non-correlated growth vector compared to utility-based crypto assets. Macroeconomic tightening, regulatory crackdowns on mining energy consumption, or sovereign entities reversing their strategic reserve policies.
BTC LONG
17:25
Mar 06
Mar 06
IBIT
MS
BLK
COIN
▾
BitGo has carried Bitcoin on its balance sheet since 2014 and the CEO states that "traditional finance coming into digital assets is the number one thing that we need." The convergence of a National Bank Charter for crypto companies and the entry of wirehouses (Morgan Stanley) creates a structural bid for the underlying asset. As regulatory friction decreases, institutional capital flows (which require these charters) will likely drive spot price appreciation. LONG. The "market structure" improvements described are bullish for the underlying asset's liquidity and adoption. Systemic market downturns or "shenanigans" from high-frequency traders (Jane Street mentioned as dumping) causing short-term volatility.
IBIT LONG
Mike Belshe notes that Morgan Stanley Digital Trust has applied for a National Bank Charter to move into Bitcoin custody, and cites Larry Fink (BlackRock) stating that "every stock, every fund, every bond can be tokenized." The CEO of a crypto-native incumbent explicitly welcomes these TradFi giants. He argues their entry provides the "ubiquitous access" and regulatory comfort required to expand the total addressable market (TAM). If Morgan Stanley and BlackRock are building the plumbing (custody and tokenization), they are effectively capturing the fee stream of the entire asset class's maturation. LONG. These firms are successfully transitioning from "tourists" to structural pillars of the digital asset economy. Regulatory reversal or failure of the "tokenized equity" thesis to gain traction with retail investors.
MS LONG
BLK LONG
Belshe emphasizes that standard crypto exchanges are "not a fiduciary" and do not have the same duty of care, audits, or CFO oversight as a chartered bank or RIA. While Coinbase is not explicitly named in the critique, it is the primary representative of the "exchange" model. BitGo's pivot to a National Bank Charter and the entry of Morgan Stanley suggests a regime shift where institutional clients may migrate away from state-regulated exchanges toward federally chartered trust banks for custody. WATCH. Monitor if Coinbase loses institutional custody market share to the newly chartered banks (BitGo/Morgan Stanley). Coinbase has its own custodial arm; if they secure similar charters, this thesis is nullified.
COIN WATCH
16:27
Mar 03
Mar 03
COIN
AMZN
GOOGL
META
▾
Thompson explicitly contrasts his decentralized solution with the institutional standard: "How does a business solve it like Coinbase? They KYC... You have to give them government documents... scan your face. That is the extreme degree of knowing who is on the other end." As the "open" internet becomes flooded with 70% bot traffic and "slop," trust becomes the premium asset. While Thompson critiques KYC for privacy reasons, he acknowledges it is the standard for businesses. As AI agents degrade trust in open networks, capital and high-value interactions will flee to "walled gardens" like Coinbase where identity is cryptographically and legally assured. Long Coinbase as the "Fortress of Identity" in a "Dead Internet" environment. Regulatory overreach or privacy-focused users migrating to decentralized identity solutions (like Ethos) over time.
COIN LONG
Thompson notes the ease of bot creation: "Anyone with a little bit of prompting to Claude can go write their own bot... You have a little agent on a Mac Mini running." The "Slop Super Cycle" is driven by the commoditization of Large Language Models (LLMs). Every bot, agent, and automated reply requires inference compute. "Claude" (Anthropic) is heavily backed by Amazon and Google. The explosion of agents—even the spammy ones—drives massive revenue for the cloud/model infrastructure providers. Long the "Pick and Shovel" providers of the AI agent explosion. Regulatory crackdowns on AI agents or platform-level bans (e.g., X blocking API access) reducing inference volume.
AMZN LONG
GOOGL LONG
The group discusses the "Dead Internet" theory, noting that "60 or 70% of the replies... are slop." Thompson mentions seeing Community Notes appearing on Instagram, indicating the bot/misinformation problem is spreading beyond X. If a significant percentage of engagement on social platforms is non-human, advertising metrics (CPM/CPC) are effectively fraudulent or highly inflated. As advertisers realize they are paying to show ads to "agents on a Mac Mini" rather than humans, ad revenue for open social platforms (like Meta) faces a structural de-rating risk. Watch for deterioration in ad-efficiency metrics as the "bot problem" dilutes the value of user bases. Meta successfully implements "human-only" filters or biometric verification to restore advertiser trust.
META WATCH
16:16
Mar 02
Mar 02
MS
BLK
COIN
NVDA
AMD
▾
Mike explicitly mentions that Morgan Stanley (MS) has applied for a National Bank Charter to move into Bitcoin custody and notes Larry Fink's (BLK) vision that "every stock, every fund, every bond can be tokenized." The entry of Tier 1 banks into *custody* (not just sales) signals they are capturing the entire value chain. They are moving from "tourists" to "landlords" of the crypto ecosystem. With a friendly SEC (Paul Atkins), these banks will likely capture institutional market share from unregulated entities. Long the incumbents who are successfully pivoting to digital asset infrastructure. Regulatory reversal or failure to integrate legacy systems with blockchain tech.
MS LONG
BLK LONG
Mike highlights that the regulatory landscape has "completely changed" with Paul Atkins at the SEC, moving away from "slapping people" to creating safe pathways. He also emphasizes the need for "market structure" and "fiduciary" protections. While BitGo is the private competitor, Coinbase (COIN) is the primary public beneficiary of a clarified US regulatory regime. If the SEC and OCC are opening doors for charters, COIN's existing custody and exchange dominance becomes legally entrenched rather than legally threatened. Long the sector leader as regulatory headwinds turn into tailwinds. Commoditization of custody fees as banks (MS) enter the space.
COIN LONG
When discussing AI, Mike notes that AI models are memory/compute intensive and states, "the AI companies are all going bananas in terms of how much hardware that they're spending." A tech CEO confirming that hardware spend is accelerating ("going bananas") reinforces the thesis that the infrastructure build-out phase is nowhere near complete. This directly benefits the chip manufacturers supplying the GPUs. Long the "pick and shovel" hardware providers. Over-saturation of GPU supply or a pullback in AI CapEx by hyperscalers.
NVDA LONG
AMD LONG
BitGo has held Bitcoin on its balance sheet since 2014, which "carried us through some of the downtimes." Mike states that traditional finance coming into digital assets is the "number one thing we need." The combination of a National Bank Charter for crypto companies and the approval of spot ETFs (implied by the Morgan Stanley context) creates a structural bid for the underlying asset. As banks operationalize custody, access becomes ubiquitous, driving price appreciation. Long the underlying asset via spot ETFs. Macroeconomic shifts strengthening the USD or specific crypto-market structure failures.
IBIT LONG
FBTC LONG
14:46
Mar 02
Mar 02
BTC
COIN
▾
Epstein used gift funds to MIT to recruit and pay three of Bitcoin's core developers, including chief scientist Gavin Andresen, effectively bankrolling early protocol maintenance. Investors must distinguish between "tainted funding" and "tainted code." Bitcoin is open-source software; its code is verifiable by anyone. While the funding source was illicit, the output (the software) is neutral and has been audited by thousands of independent developers since 2019. NEUTRAL. The market has likely already priced in the "wild west" nature of early Bitcoin funding. This news adds color to history but does not alter the scarcity, security, or adoption curve of the asset today. Regulatory optics could worsen if politicians use this link to argue that crypto was "built by criminals," potentially slowing legislative approval for future crypto products.
BTC NEUTRAL
Jeffrey Epstein invested $3 million in Coinbase during its 2014 Series C round. However, a trust associated with him sold half this equity in 2018, and there is no evidence of current ownership or operational influence. In financial markets, "headline risk" often triggers algorithmic selling or ESG (Environmental, Social, and Governance) mandates to divest, regardless of current fundamentals. However, because the equity link was severed years ago and the "bad actor" is deceased, the company's actual cash flows and governance remain unaffected. WATCH. This is a classic "noise vs. signal" event. If the stock sells off purely on the "ick factor" of the Epstein association, it creates a dislocation between price and value, offering a potential entry for investors who focus on current fundamentals over historical cap tables. Strict ESG funds might blacklist the stock regardless of the timeline, creating persistent selling pressure.
COIN WATCH
15:38
Feb 27
Feb 27
COIN
MSFT
AMZN
GOOGL
META
▾
"How does a business solve it like Coinbase? They KYC, right? They they have to know their customer... You have to give them government documents... scan your face." As the open internet becomes flooded with indistinguishable AI agents and "slop," the value of "walled gardens" where human identity is cryptographically and legally verified increases. Coinbase's strict KYC compliance—often seen as a friction point—is flipping into a competitive moat. It creates a high-trust environment for transactions and interactions that social platforms cannot match. Long COIN as a "Trust Infrastructure" play. Regulatory crackdowns or high compliance costs slowing user growth.
COIN LONG
"Anyone with a little bit of prompting to Claude can go write their own bot... the number of agents... can basically scale way more than humans could scale." The "slop super cycle" described by the guest implies an exponential increase in API calls and inference compute. Every one of the millions of bots spamming social media requires processing power from the underlying LLM providers. Microsoft (OpenAI), Amazon (Anthropic/Claude), and Google (Gemini) are the "arms dealers" selling the compute required to flood the internet with agents. Long the Hyperscalers/AI Model providers. Regulatory intervention on AI agents or platforms blocking API access (e.g., X blocking scrapers).
MSFT LONG
AMZN LONG
GOOGL LONG
"The moment I can see this was written by AI, my brain almost switches off... It's probably just wasted my time to read this." This highlights a critical degradation in User Experience (UX) for social platforms. If users begin to subconsciously devalue content on Instagram/Threads/Facebook because they assume it is AI-generated "slop," engagement metrics (time on site) will deteriorate. This threatens the ad-revenue model of platforms relying on user-generated content. Watch for declining engagement metrics or "ad blindness" on Meta platforms due to AI fatigue. Meta successfully integrates AI in a way that enhances rather than detracts from UX.
META WATCH
18:28
Feb 25
Feb 25
FIGURE
AVAX
NOW
WU
PYPL
▾
Santiago repeatedly points to Figure as the proof of concept: "Figure is now telling you where the future is going... lowered the cost to issue the loan... from $11,000 per loan to 700." Figure has successfully executed the "Inversion" thesis (using blockchain to collapse costs in HELOCs). This validates the model and suggests Figure is the leader in real-world blockchain utility. LONG FIGURE (Equity/Token if available) as the market leader in RWA/Fintech efficiency. Regulatory hurdles or competition from traditional banks adopting similar tech.
FIGURE LONG
When asked why he chose Avalanche for his fund's infrastructure, he said: "I just want something that is out of the box and is sovereign block space... I don't want to compete for block space... Avalanche provides that." Santiago's "Inversion" strategy requires a chain where he can control the environment (Subnets) to onboard real-world businesses without noise from "fartcoins." He views AVAX as the superior infrastructure for institutional/corporate adoption. LONG AVAX as the infrastructure play for the "Real World Assets" (RWA) and "Private Equity on-chain" thesis. Failure of the "Inversion" thesis or lack of adoption for Avalanche Subnets.
AVAX LONG
He discusses the "SaaS apocalypse" where the market assumes AI destroys software. He notes, "The Algo is not making a nuanced decision of whether Service Now sort of treats a super high quality... system of record... in the same way that it treats a wrapper." The market is inefficiently dumping all SaaS stocks. High-quality "System of Record" companies like ServiceNow are being punished unjustly alongside weak "wrapper" companies. This creates a value buying opportunity. LONG NOW (ServiceNow) as a contrarian play against the "AI kills SaaS" narrative. AI actually disrupting the core business model of system-of-record software faster than anticipated.
NOW LONG
Santiago is looking to buy businesses in "Cross-border trade... Remittance operators... Payment processors." He explicitly mentions Western Union (WU) as a business "left for dead" but with massive distribution that could be retrofitted with stablecoins. These legacy businesses have high friction (T+2 settlement, high fees). If an investor (like Inversion Capital) acquires or influences them to adopt stablecoins, margins expand drastically (cost to serve drops from dollars to cents). WATCH legacy payment/remittance firms as potential acquisition targets or turnaround plays via crypto adoption. These businesses may be too slow to adapt and get disrupted by crypto-native competitors (like Figure) before they can pivot.
WU WATCH
PYPL WATCH
Santiago states, "Bitcoin is very different than Solana Ethereum... it pretends to be digital gold it is a commodity... sitting at one-tenth of the valuation of gold." While he is bearish on "crypto tech" valuations, he views Bitcoin as a distinct asset class (commodity) that is under-owned by Wall Street relative to Gold. The "supply curve" for Bitcoin is fixed, unlike the elastic supply of smart contract blockspace. LONG Bitcoin as a convergence trade toward Gold's market cap. Regulatory shifts or a breakdown in the "digital gold" narrative.
BTC LONG
Santiago says, "I hate the prices... I hate it at that valuation [Ethereum at $350B]... Infrastructure is rapidly commoditizing... excess... of block space." He also notes, "Ethereum has way more downside than upside. Solana similar." The "moats" for L1s are evaporating. It is now easy to spin up sovereign chains (LayerZero, App-chains). If blockspace supply is infinite (elastic) and demand is finite, price must fall. He compares these valuations to real-world fintechs (Stripe, Revolut) and finds L1s unjustifiably expensive. SHORT / AVOID generic Layer 1 tokens that rely on gas fees for value accrual. "Memetic value" or irrational exuberance driving prices higher despite fundamentals.
ETH SHORT
SOL SHORT
14:16
Feb 24
Feb 24
BTC
ONDO
OP
HYPE
LIDO
▾
Bitcoin is experiencing a "slow bleed" due to a lack of immediate catalysts, but the fundamental 4-year cycle remains intact. Matt predicts a potential drawdown to the "high 40s" ($49k) before a rapid recovery. The current market is washing out leverage and weak hands. Once sellers are exhausted, the rebound to ATH will likely happen faster than expected (by year-end) because the macro setup (institutional adoption) is stronger than in previous cycles. LONG (Accumulate on dips). If the "slow bleed" persists longer than expected, retail capitulation could deepen the drawdown.
BTC LONG
Ondo is launching RWA perps where tokenized assets (equities/treasuries) serve as collateral. This removes the need to hold cash at a TradFi broker *and* stablecoins on a crypto exchange to hedge. Current perp DEXs (like Hyperliquid) are capital inefficient because they require stablecoin collateral. By allowing RWA collateral, Ondo doubles capital efficiency. Furthermore, AI agents will naturally route flow to venues with the best market structure and efficiency. LONG. Ondo is positioning itself as the infrastructure layer for both institutional capital efficiency and AI agent trading. Regulatory hurdles for tokenized equities; competition from established perp DEXs.
ONDO LONG
Matt explicitly states, "I wake up every morning... and I want to short Optimism," but notes it is trading below its "10/10 lows." While the fundamental sentiment on generic L2 governance tokens is extremely bearish, the asset is already so beaten down that the risk/reward for a *new* short position is poor. It is a "crowded short" at these levels. WATCH (Neutral bias due to oversold conditions). A broad market rally could trigger a short squeeze on beaten-down beta like OP.
OP WATCH
Hyperliquid has massive volume, but Matt critiques its capital inefficiency (requires stablecoin collateral, forcing market makers to fragment liquidity). While currently the dominant perp DEX, Hyperliquid faces a structural threat from next-gen RWA perp platforms (like Ondo) that offer better capital efficiency for market makers. WATCH. Monitor if liquidity migrates to RWA-backed perp venues. Hyperliquid's network effect and user experience are currently superior to new entrants.
HYPE WATCH
"This cycle isn't going to be about speculative token flipping. It's about yield as the organizing principle." Institutions (Coinbase, Bitwise) are deploying capital specifically through vault structures. As speculative retail interest cools, value accrues to protocols that generate real revenue and distribute it via vaults. The infrastructure (ERC-4626) is now mature enough to stack yields (lend + stake + restake) in a single unit of capital. LONG. Focus on protocols enabling yield stripping and fixed rates. Smart contract risk from stacking multiple protocols (composability risk).
LIDO LONG
ENA LONG
PENDLE LONG
Institutions are currently gravitating toward Gold rather than Bitcoin as a safe haven. Bitcoin's market cap is still too small to act as a stable store of value comparable to Gold. Until volatility decreases and market cap grows, institutional flows during uncertainty will favor the traditional metal. LONG. A sudden "risk-on" shift in macro sentiment could see capital rotate back into high-beta assets like Crypto.
GOLD LONG
03:06
Feb 20
Feb 20
PUMP.FUN
MEGAETH
ETH
HOOD
▾
Casey explains Euphoria's design philosophy: "You see Robinhood for example, you simplify derivatives, you make them accessible... and you open up an entirely new market segment." Tim adds, "I feel like [Robinhood] is almost the company that could I could see doing this sort of thing." Euphoria is proving the "Consumer DeFi" thesis—that simplifying complex financial products into "intuitive finger gestures" (tap trading) drives massive engagement. If this "gamified finance" trend accelerates, it benefits the incumbents who own the retail flow (Robinhood) and the crypto-native platforms facilitating meme/speculative behavior (Pump.fun). LONG the platforms that successfully gamify retail speculation. Regulatory crackdowns on "gamified" trading interfaces or "gambling-like" derivatives.
PUMP.FUN LONG
HOOD LONG
Bread states the token launch is "locked behind KPIs that we've set for ourselves," specifically requiring "10 Mafia apps that are live," median block times under 10ms, and specific Ethereum alignment progress. MegaETH is creating a scarcity of access by delaying the token until the ecosystem has proven utility (via apps like Euphoria). The token will have utility for "sequencer proximity" and "sequencer rotation" (institutional demand). Once the KPIs are hit, the TGE will likely attract significant capital looking for the "Solana of L2s" or the "Consumer Chain" play. WATCH for the completion of the 10-app KPI as a signal for the upcoming TGE. If the "Mafia apps" fail to gain traction or the mainnet cannot sustain the 10ms latency under load, the value proposition collapses.
MEGAETH WATCH
Bread confirms MegaETH is an L2 and mentions, "We have ETH as our gas asset so we don't have a requirement for launching TGE at any given point." While MegaETH is building its own high-performance execution layer, it relies on Ethereum for settlement and gas (initially). High-volume consumer apps (millions of "taps") running on L2s ultimately settle data back to Ethereum, driving value to the base layer as the "global settlement layer" for high-frequency consumer finance. LONG ETH as the beneficiary of L2 scaling success. L2s becoming too efficient or data availability layers reducing fees to the point where ETH value accrual is negligible.
ETH LONG
15:43
Feb 18
Feb 18
AAVE
▾
"We made sure that there's more than $100 million in cash right now and more than $150 million revenue... the Aave revenue supersede the revenue of every other lending protocol out there on chain combined." The market is distracted by the "governance drama" (Labs vs. DAO), missing the fundamental reality that Aave is a cash-flow giant. The DAO's ability to force Aave Labs to negotiate proves that the token has actual claim on these cash flows. With $100M in dry powder and active buybacks, the floor price is structurally supported. Long AAVE as a value play in DeFi; the asset is priced on "drama" but yielding "tech giant" style revenue dominance. Aave Labs could dump tokens if funding negotiations fail completely; continued delay of V4 could eventually allow competitors to catch up.
AAVE LONG
"To me buybacks are net superior of direct distribution... you are investing in your own future. You are buying tokens that from people leaving your ecosystem... and you bring that back into the treasury." Zeller explicitly rejects dividends (which cause price drops post-distribution and tax events) in favor of constant buy pressure. This creates a "black hole" effect for the token supply, where revenue is used to permanently remove sell pressure or restock the treasury for future talent acquisition. Long assets with active buyback mechanisms (specifically AAVE here) as they mechanically outperform inflationary rewards tokens. If protocol revenue dips, the buyback support evaporates, leading to higher volatility.
AAVE LONG
"The return on investment for this proposal [Aave Labs asking for $50M] is bad and extractive... We need actual commitment and right now we don't have actual commitment." Aave Labs is requesting ~$50M for development. If the DAO approves this without strict milestones (the "trust me bro" model), it is a bearish signal (treasury drain). If the DAO enforces Zeller's strict ROI framework, it is bullish (capital efficiency). Monitor the governance vote on the $50M funding package. A "No" vote or a "Renegotiated" vote is bullish; a "Yes" vote without changes is short-term bearish due to treasury dilution/spend. Governance gridlock could stall development entirely.
AAVE WATCH
16:23
Feb 16
Feb 16
USDT
BTC
BLK
MSTR
CME
▾
Hougan identifies "AI agents using DeFi and stablecoins to transact" as a major narrative meta for 2026. AI agents cannot use bank accounts; they require programmable money. This creates a structural, non-speculative demand for stablecoins and the DeFi rails that support them. LONG. Invest in the infrastructure (Stablecoin issuers, DeFi protocols) that AI agents will utilize. The technology for autonomous AI transactions may take longer to mature than the narrative suggests.
USDT LONG
Hougan states that institutional investors (BlackRock, etc.) "don't have time" to research deep-tier assets. They are allocating strictly to the top two assets via ETFs. In a bear market ("crypto winter"), liquidity consolidates into quality. While retail flees, institutional inflows are "papering over" the weakness in BTC and ETH, creating a floor that smaller assets lack. LONG. These are the only two assets with structural institutional bids in 2026. Global recession or a reversal of the "Clarity Act" regulation could halt institutional flows.
BTC LONG
ETH LONG
BlackRock bought UNI tokens, listed Bidd on Uniswap, and the CFO stated they plan to tokenize *all* ETFs in 3-12 months. This is a "fat accompli." BlackRock is effectively underwriting Uniswap as the infrastructure for future financial rails. BLK benefits from the asset management fees of tokenized products, while UNI benefits from the legitimacy and volume of institutional DeFi usage. LONG. A play on the convergence of TradFi (BLK) and DeFi (UNI). Regulatory crackdown on DeFi protocols requiring KYC (though BlackRock's "Bidd" is permissioned, mitigating this).
BLK LONG
UNI LONG
The market fears MicroStrategy will be forced to sell BTC to cover obligations. Hougan counters: "They have enough cash to pay the dividend on their preferreds... I don't think they'll be selling Bitcoin." The market is pricing in a "forced liquidation" discount. If MSTR simply holds (or continues buying as Hougan predicts), that discount will unwind as the fear dissipates. LONG (Contrarian). Betting against the "forced seller" narrative. Bitcoin price dropping below $50k for an extended period (3+ years) could eventually stress their balance sheet.
MSTR LONG
Prediction markets are booming, and traditional finance is catching up. Hougan explicitly mentions CME is "now doing its own prediction markets." Prediction markets are gaining mass adoption (Uber-style trajectory). As regulatory clarity improves, regulated incumbents like CME are best positioned to capture institutional volume in this new asset class, stealing share from offshore/crypto-native platforms. LONG. A regulated way to play the growth of the prediction market sector. Strict US regulations banning election betting or prediction markets entirely.
CME LONG
Hougan notes that assets without ETFs (specifically naming Sui and Avalanche) were down 70% in 2025 and are "down even more in 2026." Institutional capital is the only active buyer in this market. Since institutions are not buying "secondary assets" (Alts), and retail has already sold off, there is no marginal buyer for these L1s until the cycle fully turns. AVOID. These assets are "zombies" until retail interest returns or they gain ETF approval. A sudden "Altseason" triggered by a specific app breakout or unexpected regulatory approval for an Alt-ETF.
APT AVOID
AVAX AVOID
SUI AVOID
04:57
Feb 14
Feb 14
CEXS
COIN
LDO
AAVE
UNI
▾
Chaos Labs is powering "Kraken Earn" using on-chain vaults to provide yield to Kraken users. Centralized Exchanges (CEXs) are pivoting from simple trading venues to "DeFi Mullets" (Fintech in the front, DeFi in the back). They are integrating on-chain yield directly into user accounts. This benefits the exchanges (retention) and the underlying DeFi protocols they utilize. Watch CEXs (like Coinbase/Kraken) for increased earnings derived from "Earn" products as they capture DeFi yields for retail users. Regulatory crackdowns on "Earn" products (similar to the SEC vs. Gemini/Genesis).
CEXS WATCH
COIN WATCH
Lido is launching "Staking Vaults" (V4). This allows institutions to curate specific node operator sets rather than using the general, socialized pool. Many institutions (like banks or ETF issuers) cannot legally or risk-wise use a permissionless, randomized set of 700 node operators. By allowing them to "ring-fence" their validators via Vaults, Lido removes the primary compliance blocker for billions in institutional ETH to enter the protocol. Long LDO as the total addressable market (TAM) for liquid staking expands to strictly regulated capital. Complexity in the new vault architecture leading to smart contract bugs; competition from institutional-only staking providers.
LDO LONG
Tim notes that BlackRock is explicitly buying UNI tokens, not just equity in Uniswap Labs. Separately, Craig notes Aave is proposing to direct 100% of revenue to the DAO. BlackRock's direct token purchase validates the "governance token" as an investable asset class for institutions, moving beyond just holding BTC/ETH. Simultaneously, Aave's revenue switch solves the "useless governance token" narrative, creating a clear path for cash flow to accrue to token holders. These two events signal a repricing of "DeFi Blue Chips." Long the market leaders (UNI/AAVE) as they transition from speculative assets to cash-flowing, institutionally-held assets. Regulatory pushback against revenue-sharing tokens (securities laws); BlackRock using voting power against the ethos of the protocol.
AAVE LONG
UNI LONG
13:01
Feb 10
Feb 10
BTC
ETH
▾
long-term
"On the Bitcoin ecosystem, the social layer and the appetite of of change is much different... harder to move." Bitcoin's rigidity makes it slower to adapt to new security paradigms like post-quantum computing, though collaboration with EF researchers is occurring. This structural inertia could be a liability if rapid technological pivots are required. WATCH (Rigidity Risk). Bitcoin's stability is also its main value proposition; changing it too fast could destroy trust.
BTC WATCH
long-term
"For Ethereum, the social layers is... much more prone to change... and to incremental change than the Bitcoin ecosystem." In a landscape where existential threats like quantum computing are emerging, the ability to upgrade "crypto primitives" quickly is a massive survival advantage. Ethereum's flexibility allows it to integrate post-quantum security (XMSS schemes) faster than Bitcoin, reducing long-term tail risk. LONG (Technological Adaptability Premium). Upgradability introduces complexity and potential bugs compared to Bitcoin's ossified stability.
ETH LONG
20:30
Feb 09
Feb 09
FIGURE
DATS
AVAX
JPM
HYPE
▾
Sigel cites Figure as a "successful IPO from last year" that has taken "10% market share in the origination of HELOCs" (Home Equity Lines of Credit) using the Provenance blockchain. This is the "upstream origination" thesis. Figure isn't just tokenizing a fund; they are using blockchain rails to originate loans faster and cheaper than competitors. This allows them to earn healthier margins while offering competitive rates, creating a flywheel that steals market share from traditional lenders. LONG. This is a play on RWA infrastructure that has actual product-market fit. Real estate market downturn reducing demand for HELOCs.
FIGURE LONG
Sigel says VanEck is "very underweight" DATs. He describes them as "hedge funds in a box" that add leverage to already volatile assets. He notes that institutions are "scared by that." The market pays a low PE multiple for hedge funds. DATs are trying to sell yield via leverage, but the volatility risk outweighs the return for institutional mandates. As ETFs (spot products) become available, the inferior structure of DATs (high fees, leverage risk, discount to NAV) renders them obsolete. AVOID (or SHORT if pair-trading against Spot ETFs). A short-term crypto bull run could temporarily spike high-beta/levered assets like DATs before they structurally fail.
DATS AVOID
VanEck launched an Avalanche ETF. Sigel explicitly states AVAX has "product-market fit," "better than average economic clarity" regarding token value accrual, and a strong BD team driving "institutional distribution." Institutions require three things: Custody, Compliance, and Economic Drivers (revenues/fees). VanEck has validated that AVAX checks these boxes. The launch of the ETF provides the regulated wrapper necessary for large allocators who cannot hold self-custody tokens to enter the ecosystem. LONG. The ETF acts as a stamp of approval and a passive inflow mechanism. Regulatory reversal or failure to reach the $100M AUM "escape velocity" milestone mentioned by Sigel.
AVAX LONG
Sigel notes that "Square is a bank now" and cites a stat that "more than half of Gen Zers don't know JP Morgan is a bank." He argues legacy banks are facing the "innovator's dilemma"—lobbying to protect moats rather than re-platforming. Fintechs and stablecoin issuers with bank charters can pass yield directly to consumers (via stablecoins or deposits) more efficiently than legacy banks with heavy overhead. This will lead to "deposit flight" from legacy banks to Fintechs/Neobanks, shifting profit pools away from traditional finance. LONG SQ (as a proxy for Fintech banks) / AVOID JPM (as a proxy for legacy deposit franchises). Regulatory crackdown on non-bank financial institutions or stablecoin yields.
JPM AVOID
Sigel mentions Hyperliquid as "one of the better performing tokens this year" but notes "they don't have an ETF yet." VanEck is constantly scouting for the next token to wrap. By explicitly naming Hyperliquid in the context of ETF table stakes, he implies it is on the radar for institutional products once it matures. WATCH. Accumulate on dips in anticipation of future institutional access products. Failure to decentralize or regulatory hurdles preventing an ETF listing.
HYPE WATCH
16:19
Feb 09
Feb 09
GOLD
COIN
HOOD
GS
JPM
▾
"Central banks around the world had started to accumulate gold... in the face of the US government having a $37 trillion debt... spending more dollars paying interest on their debt than they are for their military budget." The fiscal situation (Debt spiral) forces the US to devalue the currency (print money). Central banks recognize this and are front-running the devaluation by hoarding gold. Long Gold as the ultimate hedge against the inevitable monetary debasement required to service US debt. Deflationary crash where cash becomes king temporarily.
GOLD LONG
"The crypto market had a very challenging Q4... Coinbase and Robinhood's crypto business tends to fluctuate with that market." He notes a "loss of interest" from retail recently. These companies' revenues are heavily dependent on retail trading volume. If the market was "troubling" in Q4 and retail is booing crypto ads, earnings expectations may be too high relative to the actual drop in transaction revenue. Be cautious/neutral going into upcoming earnings reports; the macro headwinds (retail apathy) likely outweigh the institutional progress (ETF custody) in the short term. Institutional revenue (custody fees from BlackRock/Fidelity) could surprise to the upside, offsetting retail weakness.
COIN WATCH
HOOD WATCH
"The big banks... are already preparing... having conversations about M&A, buy versus build." "If I don't [sell], the big banks are going to take me out in five years." The current crypto downturn is a shopping spree for well-capitalized TradFi banks. They can acquire distressed crypto infrastructure (custody, payments, rails) for pennies on the dollar, bypassing years of R&D. Long the acquirers (Banks) who will own the rails of the future financial system at a discount. Regulatory crackdown prevents banks from finalizing these acquisitions.
GS LONG
JPM LONG
The DTCC is doing a pilot project for tokenization with Canton Network and is "probably going to do some pilots with Ethereum and with Solana as well." The tokenization of Real World Assets (equities, stocks) is the "end game" for financial markets. If the DTCC (the backbone of US clearing) is testing specifically on Ethereum and Solana, these chains become the likely infrastructure layer for trillions in traditional assets. Long the underlying L1s (ETH/SOL) as they are being validated by the most critical financial utility in the US. The DTCC chooses a private/permissioned ledger instead of public chains.
SOL LONG
ETH LONG
Christian Lopez
Head of Blockchain and Digital Assets at Cohen & Company Capital Markets
medium-term
"Capital is pivoting to the new hot thing which is AI... Bitcoin miners are moving to AI... there's more money to be made in AI." Pure-play crypto mining is suffering from the "bear market" and "opportunity cost." Miners that successfully transition their HPC (High-Performance Computing) centers to service AI demand are unlocking a superior, more stable revenue stream. Long the miners that are explicitly pivoting infrastructure to AI compute rather than just hashing Bitcoin. Execution risk on the pivot; AI bubble bursting.
WGMI LONG
03:01
Feb 06
Feb 06
IBM
GOOGL
ETH
STRK
▾
Tomas identifies Google and IBM as the "strategic players" pouring massive capital into quantum hardware, noting that AI is now helping them design better quantum error-correcting codes to "compress time." If the threat is credible enough for Ethereum to re-architect its entire consensus layer, the progress in quantum hardware must be substantial. While this is a threat to crypto encryption, it is a massive value driver for the companies building the "spear." Long the hardware developers who are forcing the rest of the digital world to upgrade their security. "Quantum Winter" where physical limitations halt progress for a decade.
IBM LONG
GOOGL LONG
The EF has a dedicated team, a roadmap to 2030, and is already running "Devnet 3" and "Devnet 4" with post-quantum signatures (XMSS) replacing BLS. They are treating this as an "opportunity for functional change" rather than just a crisis. The market prices in a non-zero probability of a "Quantum Apocalypse" where crypto assets become worthless. By proactively proving they can upgrade the consensus layer years before the threat arrives, Ethereum removes this existential tail risk. A "quantum-safe" store of value commands a significant premium over chains that are reactive or lack the coordination to upgrade. Long ETH as a long-term hold; the governance risk is lower than Bitcoin due to a social layer more willing to upgrade cryptography. Implementation failure or a quantum breakthrough occurring before the 2030 deployment timeline.
ETH LONG
Tomas explicitly mentions that "Native Account Abstraction" (smart contract wallets) is the superior defense because you can rotate the signature scheme inside the contract logic without moving funds. He specifically cites Starknet as an example of a chain doing this natively. Legacy wallets (EOAs) are tied to their private keys and are hard to upgrade. Chains that enforce Account Abstraction at the protocol level (like Starknet) will have a much smoother, cheaper migration to post-quantum security. This architectural advantage will drive capital migration to these L2s as the quantum threat narrative heats up. Long L2s with native Account Abstraction (specifically Starknet) as the "easiest migration path" for capital. Adoption of these L2s stalls for reasons unrelated to quantum (e.g., user experience or fees).
STRK LONG
15:12
Feb 04
Feb 04
ETH
MEGAETH
MONAD
INX
POLYMARKET
▾
Warwick states Infinex is built for a "multi-chain world" where Solana is a "real thing," and mentions supporting upcoming chains like MegaETH and Monad. He notes they use "Sunrise" for liquidity provisioning on Solana. The "Super App" removes the tribalism and friction of specific chains. By abstracting gas (paying gas for the user), Infinex increases the velocity of money across *all* integrated L1s. A successful super app is bullish for the underlying infrastructure it sits on top of, as it removes the "bridging barrier" that currently keeps liquidity siloed. Long the L1 infrastructure basket. Commoditization of L1 blockspace; technical exploits in the bridging/aggregation layer.
ETH LONG
MEGAETH LONG
MONAD LONG
SOL LONG
Warwick confirms Infinex has just launched its token (INX) and is actively conducting buybacks ("All things being equal, buybacks are better"). He states the platform is designed to close the UX gap with centralized exchanges within six months. The "Super App" thesis relies on a winner-take-most interface. If Infinex succeeds in abstracting gas and bridging across chains (Solana, Monad, ETH), it becomes the primary liquidity funnel for retail users, accruing value to the governance token via buybacks and volume. Long as a play on the "UX Abstraction" narrative. Execution risk in a "down only" market (post-10/10 crash); high competition from wallets like MetaMask/Phantom pivoting to similar models.
INX LONG
Warwick explicitly names Poly Market and Hyperliquid as examples of apps where "demand is super high" but "barriers are still high." He notes that once friction is removed, using them becomes a "no-brainer." Infinex is effectively a "frontend aggregator." It does not replace these protocols; it routes volume to them. If the Super App thesis works, the underlying "best-in-class" derivatives and prediction protocols (Backend) will see a surge in volume from users who previously couldn't figure out how to bridge/swap to use them. Long the underlying protocols that Infinex integrates. Regulatory crackdowns on prediction markets or derivatives; failure of the frontend aggregator to gain traction.
POLYMARKET LONG
SNX LONG
HYPE LONG
10:18
Feb 03
Feb 03
HYPE
ETH
EIGEN
ZRO
GOLD
▾
Jordi states Hyperliquid is "probably the only thing... that's done tremendously well." Zaheer notes that trading (DEXs) is the only sector that actually feels "futuristic" and solves real problems. Hyperliquid is capturing the "Commodity Super Cycle" volume by allowing on-chain traders to trade Gold/Silver (XAU) with leverage. While the rest of crypto is boring, Hyperliquid is monetizing the volatility occurring in traditional assets. It has achieved Product-Market Fit where L1s have failed. LONG. It is the market leader in the only vertical (Perps/DEX) currently showing growth and revenue. Regulatory crackdowns on permissionless derivatives platforms.
HYPE LONG
Jordi admits he is "a little bit more optimistic on Ethereum than I was last year." He notes the Foundation is finally "getting their act together" and posting reasonable roadmaps (e.g., AI agents). Ethereum sentiment reached maximum bearishness ("spiral to zero"). The reversal in management competence and the shift toward tangible utility (AI agents, privacy/Canton) suggests a mean-reversion trade. When sentiment is 9/10 bad, any positive structural change can trigger a rally. LONG (Contrarian Reversal). L2 fragmentation continues to cannibalize L1 revenue; "MegaETH" or Monad steals remaining thunder.
ETH LONG
Jordi notes that altcoins are "really depressed" and back to baseline prices. He explicitly names LayerZero and EigenLayer as examples of "super big names" that are now cheap. The market has indiscriminately sold off these assets due to the October 10th liquidation cascade and general nihilism. This is a "survival bet." If you believe these protocols will exist in 3 years, the current price represents deep distress value rather than fundamental valuation. LONG (Distressed Value). Buy the "fallen angels" that have real tech but broken charts. The project could actually go to zero if they fail to pivot to a revenue-generating product model.
EIGEN LONG
ZRO LONG
"We're getting a bit of a commodity super cycle." Retail participation in China and global markets is driving massive volatility in precious metals. Crypto traders are volatility junkies. Currently, crypto is flat/down, but metals are volatile. Liquidity is flowing from Crypto -> Metals. The trade is to follow the volatility, even if it means leaving the crypto asset class temporarily (or trading metals via crypto rails). LONG. Mean reversion if the Dollar strengthens significantly or the "war premium" fades.
GOLD LONG
05:25
Feb 03
Feb 03
MSTR
HYPE
GOLD
SILVER
BTC
▾
MicroStrategy (MSTR) has a massive USD balance sheet and can service its debt. Conversely, smaller "Digital Asset Treasury" companies are sitting on unrealized losses and are trading below their average purchase price. The "Treasury" model relies on reflexivity: stock price goes up -> raise cash -> buy coin -> coin goes up. On the way down, this breaks. Smaller players may be forced into a "death spiral" where they must sell assets to survive, crushing their stock. MSTR is capitalized enough to survive; the others are not. LONG MSTR (Flight to quality/liquidity), AVOID small-cap crypto treasury stocks. Bitcoin price drops by 50%, putting even MSTR under pressure.
MSTR LONG
Hyperliquid is launching HIP-3 (Permissionless Perps for RWAs like Silver/Stocks) and HIP-4 (Prediction Markets). The chain is generating significant volume and fees, yet is considered "undervalued" relative to peers. In a market starved of organic yield, protocols with "genuine revenue" and "buyback mechanisms" become the only defensible investments for institutional committees. Hyperliquid's speed of execution (bypassing slow DAO governance) allows it to capture market share from slower incumbents like PolyMarket or Coinbase. LONG the ecosystem/token. It is the "only exciting thing" in the current market structure. Regulatory crackdown on permissionless derivatives; technical failure in oracle pricing for RWAs during off-market hours.
HYPE LONG
Crypto realized volatility is dead. Retail traders are "touristing" into physical metals because that is where the standard deviation moves are happening. Capital in this cycle is mercenary and chases volatility, not ideology. If Crypto remains flat/boring, liquidity will continue to drain from Crypto into Commodities (Metals) to chase the momentum there. LONG Metals (as a volatility play). The "generational rally" in metals may have already peaked (crowded trade).
GOLD LONG
SILVER LONG
Bitcoin is currently trading strictly on the "Momentum Factor." It is not trading as a debasement hedge (Gold) or a risk-off asset. Since BTC is effectively a high-beta proxy for the Nasdaq, the primary risk is a rotation out of Tech/AI stocks (e.g., if Microsoft or NVIDIA roll over). If the "juice comes out of the AI trade," crypto will suffer a correlated drawdown regardless of its own fundamentals. WATCH Nasdaq and AI equities. If Tech momentum breaks, SHORT/AVOID Crypto. A sudden geopolitical shock could briefly flip BTC back to a "digital gold" correlation, invalidating the tech-beta thesis.
BTC WATCH
23:33
Jan 30
Jan 30
CANTON
HYPE
GOLD
▾
"Canton is one of the projects that is really kind of bringing some of the traditional Wall Street players together... we invested along with Goldman Sachs and Citadel." While retail crypto is depressed, institutional adoption is quietly accelerating (UBS hiring crypto heads, banks tokenizing assets). These institutions will not use public, permissionless chains for core settlement due to privacy/compliance needs. They will use "Cabal" chains like Canton. WATCH. This represents the "adult" table of crypto. It may not have a retail-pump token immediately, but it represents the infrastructure that survives the purge. Slow adoption cycle; "Corporate blockchains" have a history of failing to gain network effects.
CANTON WATCH
Jordi states Hyperliquid is "probably the only thing that's really come out of recent times that's done tremendously well." Zaheer notes that "the second highest liquidation event was on XAU [Gold] on Hyperliquid." The market is suffering from "financial nihilism" and a lack of organic crypto use cases. However, the demand for leverage and trading remains constant. Hyperliquid has successfully captured the "Commodity Super Cycle" flow by allowing seamless on-chain trading of Gold/Silver/S&P500. It is effectively replacing the "casino" function of centralized exchanges with better UX. LONG. This is the clear winner of the "Product Era." It creates actual revenue and captures the volatility migrating from alts to commodities. Regulatory crackdown on permissionless derivatives; failure of the "HIPP3" permissionless market structure.
HYPE LONG
"We're getting a bit of a commodity super cycle... retail participants in China that are like lining up and bidding it up." Volatility is the lifeblood of traders. Crypto assets have become stagnant/correlated, while commodities are seeing massive geopolitical and retail-driven volatility. Traders will migrate to where the action is. Crypto is simply the *rail* (via Hyperliquid or tokenized assets) to express the trade, but the *asset* to own is the commodity itself. LONG. Bet on the asset class that has captured the "gambling/speculative" energy that used to belong to memecoins. Fed policy reversion (hawkishness) strengthens the USD and crushes commodity prices.
GOLD LONG
16:45
Jan 30
Jan 30
AMZN
HOOD
MS
COIN
USD
▾
Jeff Park notes that Amazon laid off 16,000+ workers (30k+ total recently) while simultaneously experiencing massive productivity gains due to AI. This is "Good Deflation" for the corporation. Companies are successfully decoupling revenue growth from headcount. This signals massive margin expansion for tech giants that can effectively replace "bureaucratic administrative management" with AI. Long Big Tech companies executing AI-driven cost reductions. "Occupy AI" social unrest or regulatory backlash against mass displacement of workers.
AMZN LONG
FNGS LONG
Pomp states that legacy institutions (like Morgan Stanley) are not exiting fiat but are trying to "pull Bitcoin into the fiat system" to capture the wealth of the new "Independent Investor" class. The banks and fintechs that successfully build the "pipes" (ETFs, tokenization, trading desks) to service this wealthy, self-directed cohort will capture the fees from the Bitcoin wealth effect. Long the infrastructure providers bridging TradFi and Crypto. Regulatory hurdles or failure to attract the "digital native" demographic.
HOOD LONG
MS LONG
COIN LONG
Pomp cites the administration's economic plan (referencing Steven Myron) which explicitly requires a weaker US Dollar to offset the impact of tariffs and fix trade deficits. If the government's explicit policy goal is currency devaluation to spur domestic growth and manufacturing, the path of least resistance for the Dollar is down. Short USD (or Long hard assets against it). Global flight to safety driving capital back into the Dollar during a crisis.
USD SHORT
Pomp states he plans to give his Bitcoin to his grandkids and will "never sell." He notes that while Bitcoin lagged recently due to falling inflation expectations, it remains the primary tool for protecting purchasing power over the long term. While the short-term "inflation hedge" narrative has cooled (causing BTC to lag Gold), the structural thesis of wealth preservation and the "Bitcoiner mindset" among the rising wealthy class ensures long-term demand. Long-term accumulation (HODL) regardless of short-term price action or 2026 volatility. Quantum computing (technical risk) and institutional "consensus" diluting the meritocratic culture of Bitcoin.
BTC LONG
Pomp observes that Gold is outperforming Bitcoin because Central Banks are the primary buyers. They are not buying to hedge CPI inflation; they are buying to "de-dollarize" and reduce exposure to all fiat currencies. The driver for Gold is geopolitical (Sovereign balance sheet restructuring) rather than macroeconomic (CPI). As long as global powers seek to exit the USD system, there is a price-insensitive bid for Gold that Bitcoin currently lacks. Long Gold as a play on Central Bank accumulation and fiat debasement. A sudden strengthening of the US Dollar or a reversal in Central Bank buying policies.
GOLD LONG
Choose Sources
Loading sources...